Is the opportunity for Rohingya repatriation slipping away?

Bangladesh, Education, Help Refugees, Human Rights, Myanmar, Refugees Issues, Religious Rights

Five years since the 2017 exodus of Rohingya refugees from Myanmar as a result of its military’s horrific persecution, there is no sign of repatriation on the horizon. And as long as the military junta continues to rule, there is hardly any scope for repatriation. This was reflected by Myanmar’s Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in 2017, when he said in a media interview, “we did not send them to bring them back.”

Even after the military coup in February 2021, when the junta was under tremendous pressure from inside and outside, General Min Aung Hlaing reiterated in May 2021, in an interview with an international media outlet, that there is “no option of bringing back the Rohingyas”. Whatever discussions on repatriation we hear and see are part of diplomatic rhetoric; no serious analyst would take it at face value. However, it is always better to have engagement with the present Myanmar government on this issue rather than a complete disengagement.

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Lately, Myanmar has started speaking about repatriation after almost three years. It is with some purpose, since their silence was creating frustration in diplomatic circles in Dhaka. Now, in exchange for this mere engagement, Bangladesh is likely to be cautious and avoid activities and casual comments against Myanmar. As the International Court of Justice (ICJ) case against Myanmar is moving forward, International Criminal Court (ICC) cases are round the corner and their economy is struggling, along with external pressure and internal troubles, the military junta is likely to undertake efforts that release some of the pressure on them.

The Myanmar authorities know that there is an upcoming election in Bangladesh next year and is likely to want to take advantage of that. Some kind of repatriation deal could act as political mileage, and become an achievement that the ruling party could exhibit. However, we have to be watchful, since we are dealing with a meritocratic organisation run by a smart set of professionals, who are masters of deceit and deception and not easily swayed by individual interest over organisational interest.